The Disinformation Epidemic
The Global Risks Report 2024 identifies disinformation as one of the top risks the world will have to contend with, predicting that "over the next two years, the widespread use of misinformation and disinformation, and tools to disseminate it, may undermine the legitimacy of newly elected governments."
"Resulting unrest could range from violent protests and hate crimes to civil confrontation and terrorism. The rise of disinformation may increasingly embolden governments to control information based on what they determine to be 'true'."
Foreign Sponsored Disinformation Campaigns
A recent study by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS), "Mapping a Surge of Disinformation in Africa", has found that disinformation campaigns to manipulate African information systems have surged nearly four-fold since 2022.
Regional Campaign Distribution
West Africa
East Africa
Southern Africa
Central Africa
North Africa
Trans-African
Foreign Manipulation by Region
North Africa
There was evidence of Kremlin-linked interference across the region, in addition to domestic political actors manipulating information systems for electoral advantage.
East Africa
Domestic political actors bore the primary responsibility for disinformation campaigns, though there was also evidence of campaigns orchestrated by militant Islamist groups and military actors.
Southern Africa
The Southern African region witnessed a significant number of Kremlin-linked and CCP-linked disinformation campaigns. Interestingly, campaigns propagated by domestic political actors only featured in 2 instances in Zimbabwe.
Central & West Africa
Kremlin-linked influence dominated both regions. West Africa saw the highest concentration of foreign-sponsored campaigns, alongside CCP-linked operations and domestic political manipulation.
Critical Threat to Democracy
The study identified 23 trans-African campaigns linked primarily to the Kremlin and, to a lesser extent, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). These campaigns represent a direct threat to African sovereignty and democratic processes.
Social Media and Disinformation
This clear and targeted obfuscation has important ramifications for the social media space in Africa. Key statistics include:
- 300 million Africans have come onto social media in the past 7 years
- There are over 400 million active social media users and 600 million internet users on the continent
- Africans online rely on social media for news content at among the highest rates in the world
- Social media users in Kenya and Nigeria are near the top globally in terms of hours per day spent on platforms
With this background, it is clear that a significant proportion of the African electorate will make political choices based on information consumed on social media. African elections have proved to be prime fodder for disinformation and influence campaigns.
Mercenary Information Operations
Deploying mercenary disinfo-ops teams, one Israeli group, "Team Jorge" has reportedly carried out disinformation campaigns influencing over 20 African elections since 2015.
"Jurisdictions with stronger checks and balances such as those that uphold presidential term limits appear to be less vulnerable to foreign-sponsored disinformation campaigns."
The Path Forward
All these reports make it clear that foreign state actors are heavily invested in influencing the African political space and elections for their own purposes through disinformation. African politicians must therefore rise to the occasion and act to safeguard our democratic space.
Politicians need to sensitize voters on the extent of disinformation on social media and online, as well as consider and implement effective and robust legislative and policy measures. This situation is all the more daunting as a result of the speed at which disinformation trends evolve, as evidenced by the rise of generative artificial intelligence.
Fortunately, Africa does not lack the intellectual capacity to address these challenges; that prowess need only be combined with the commensurate political will to address one of the most critical challenges of our time.
